Here's another reason why 2012 may be the year that tipped the scale:
Currency War III has just begun, and the author contends that, in addition to national issuers of currency, participants also include the IMF, the World Bank, the United Nations, hedge funds, global corporations, and private family offices of the super rich. After 40 years of massive money printing and explosion of derivatives, CWIII will be fought on a massive scale, with a real risk of a collapse of the entire monetary system.
So how's this currency war to end all currency wars going to turn out? The author paints a scary picture, using complexity theory and behavioral economics. Although the framework is different, the results follow Ludwig von Mises's outline of the three stages of inflation.
In Mises's stage one, government prints all the money it can, because prices don't rise nearly as much as money supply. In stage two, the demand for money falls, which intensifies price inflation. Finally, in stage three, prices go up faster than money supply. A shortage of money develops, and people urge government to print more; when the government does this, prices and money supply spiral upwards.
Rickards develops hypothetical thresholds wherein the dollar is repudiated. Up to an uncertain number, people can begin to repudiate the dollar to no effect on prices or the dollar's value. But once a critical threshold is passed, the collapse is triggered — as Hemingway once wrote about how bankruptcy happens — first slowly, then all at once.
This is an excerpt of a book review done by Douglas French of the Mises Institute..the book is: Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis • By James Rickards •
The United States' I grew up in no longer exists…click your heals, Dorothy: you're not in Kansas anymore!!
8:16 pm February 4, 2012
MW
Over the Rainbow
Golden Apple
posts 1622
22
To further that and add strength to the "repudiated dollar" argument…
All the kings horses and all the kings men won’t be able to put the empire together again. -anonymous
5:02 am February 8, 2012
druidhouse
Core Member
posts 266
23
the GTA's contempt for doug casey and his cafayete boondoggle notwithstanding, i think this is an interesting article, and addresses in a round about way the drip, drip, drip nature of the u.s. decline and the lack of a definitive event signaling the s hitting the fan. i've been saying for decades that 1960 and the election of JFK was the beginning of the end. if you read his inauguration speech you'll see the beginning of the doctrine of the u.s. being the world's cop.
i disagree with a couple points. i disagree with 1971 being the final nail in the coffin because nixon closed the gold window. i place that final nail at 1974 when nixon opened up china. anyway, i think this article is worth your time.
The decline in the US economy is exactly like a water leak. Small drips, hardly noticeable at first, then faster until the water line bursts. I'm not sure when that burst will occur, but occur it will, probably this fall…..between Irans stupidly and Obama's need for a new crisis.
i disagree with a couple points. i disagree with 1971 being the final nail in the coffin because nixon closed the gold window. i place that final nail at 1974 when nixon opened up china.
Both….Gold and China
Funny how Republicans like to blame every thing on Democrats and visa versa. Politicians are alike in every aspect other than the speed with which they implement their goals.
Good article druid.
I watched an old movie staring Spencer Tracy about the Nuremberg Trails. The similarities between the German and American people are frighting. The willingness of the German people to accept draconian regulations that they thought were necessary and temporary to protect them from foreign aggresion mirror the thinking of most Americans.
Never let a good crisis go to waste.
" When a well packaged web of lies has been sold gradually to the masses over generations, the truth will seem utterly preposterous and it's speaker a raving lunatic." Dresden James
9:57 am February 8, 2012
pm97
Florida
Bronze Apple
posts 715
25
druidhouse said:
if you read his inauguration speech you'll see the beginning of the doctrine of the u.s. being the world's cop.
I agree. Tho' I believe in was in the planning stages for many years prior.
jarhead- I think the key word for why people are so gullible and accept the measures is "temporary". Also their own stupidity/naivitea in actually believing in that they are temporary.
8:58 pm February 8, 2012
jamie
Golden Apple
posts 1820
26
I know the collapse is coming as it is a mathmatical certainty. I really underestimated the PTBs investment in the status quo and they are greedy and want to fleece the rest of the sheep before the collapse.
I'm personally ready for a bank run or WWIII everyday, but I think we may have another 18-24 months before chaos and a collapse is unavoidable. I think that is the PTBs plan, I just think they discount what some folks may do to protect themselves. Hubris and pride will make it easier for us to move under the radar as they can't imagine anyone defying them and as long as we stay small and not a threat as a group we have a good chance to surprise them.
How can we stand against them they are the elites. They have the money, education and power. It would be stupid for anyone to defy them…. Then look at history
But commercial real estate is different from residential in one important way: Your standard residential mortgage goes 20 to 30 years. Your standard commercial loan goes for five years, at the end of which you either make a big balloon payment
Happened to me the other day, the balloon came due on a rental and even though I owe far less that it's worth even today I had to pay 9.8 % interest to refinance it. I think I'll be able to double up and pay it off in about 18 months….if the Sh!t doesn't hit the fan before then.
" When a well packaged web of lies has been sold gradually to the masses over generations, the truth will seem utterly preposterous and it's speaker a raving lunatic." Dresden James
5:57 pm February 9, 2012
MW
Over the Rainbow
Golden Apple
posts 1622
29
had to pay 9.8 % interest to refinance it.
I long for the day when credit lands in its traditional and proper place as a minor element of business and SAVING is rewarded by banks.
All the kings horses and all the kings men won’t be able to put the empire together again. -anonymous
6:33 am February 10, 2012
Jarhead
Arkansas
Diamond Apple
posts 2326
30
Post edited 6:34 am – February 10, 2012 by Jarhead
MW said:
had to pay 9.8 % interest to refinance it.
I long for the day when credit lands in its traditional and proper place as a minor element of business and SAVING is rewarded by banks.
Yeah,I have perfect credit, owed about a third on the property of the current appraisal, never defaulted or declared bankruptcy on a loan and still wouldn't have been able to roll over the loan if I hadn't been a personal friend with the president of the local branch. They just don't want to do commercial loans now.
" When a well packaged web of lies has been sold gradually to the masses over generations, the truth will seem utterly preposterous and it's speaker a raving lunatic." Dresden James
8:24 am February 11, 2012
Pete
Bronze Apple
posts 715
31
If 2012 is the last year, what do you guys think I should be concentrating on as far as last minute preps given the following:
1. I have only ounce of gold and 20 ounces of silver (not counting my wife's jewelry which is legion )
2. I have a .45 Glock 21 pistol, XM-15, 12 gauge Remington 870, .357 Ruger revolver and a Remington Semi-auto .22; and 100's of rounds for each caliber
3. I have enough food stocked for me and my wife for about a year (step daughter and father-in-law will probably
need to be accounted for at some point I'm sure).
4. $2000 in cash stashed
5. 2 cars paid off…I owe on my truck.
6. My garden area is underdeveloped; like I said: hilltop farming is almost impossible…All soil has to be imported
then conditioned.
7. I still owe about 50% of the value of my home but there's enough in my 401K that, if cashed out, would pay off the balance.
There's other odds and ends: I have most toiletries stocked up for a year, books on homesteading and self sufficiency, etc. but out of the 7 items listed, which ones would you all suggest on improving? I think my biggest deficiency is home security: I live in a double wide with no burglar bars, no home security system, etc. Just my father-in-law who's retired and keeps a very good eye on everything while we're away. Well, I have to go for now but would love to hear what you guys think.
The United States' I grew up in no longer exists…click your heals, Dorothy: you're not in Kansas anymore!!
9:36 am February 11, 2012
pm97
Florida
Bronze Apple
posts 715
32
Food production. Hydroponics; sheep/goats; chickens/turkeys. What vegies do you eat? What meat do you like/will you eat? Secure water and food. Don't waist your time on fortifying your home. You'd have to account for underneath as well as every square inch of wall. if yours is like the ones I'm used to, the walls are easier to breech than the door frames. If security is your concern, concentrate on your perimeter and keeping "them" away from you. Cover, concealment of your ingress and egress. Stovepipie "their" entry to your house area.
10:29 am February 11, 2012
MW
Over the Rainbow
Golden Apple
posts 1622
33
Post edited 10:35 am – February 11, 2012 by MW
Don't waist your time on fortifying your home.
I agree but I would say rather than fortifying, do the best at securing your home:
Make sure you have at least a 1" deadbolt on a solid oak or steel entry doors w/ peephole.
Replace the standard 2-screw deadbolt latch with a security latch with 4 screws. Use 4" steel screws that drill into the studs.
Replace the hinges with security hinges and use 4" screws that drill into the studs and 1 1/2" screws for the door.
Buy a good door bar that fits under the knob and goes to the floor. Use these especially at night to help resist kick-ins. Gives you more time to wake up, grab the gun and defend.
Plant thick rose bushes under each of my ground-level windows to interfere with window entry.
have an alert "watch dog" that sleeps or lives inside on the ground floor.
Motion activated lights outside on the four corners, or at least near entry doors.
Don't worry so much about what happens when you are away from the house. Its your precious cargo asleep at night that needs protecting. A determined attacker WILL gain entry and the police are always just a minute or so too late to help during a home invasion/ burglary.
You need to do whatever you can to:
1) have early warning, be alerted ASAP to a break in or prowler
2) have time after being alerted to shake off grogginess, obtain weapon and be in position to defend the incoming attack.
Also, get more silver and more ammo. Otherwise, you are in very good shape, Pete. Your beating 90% of the population or more.
All the kings horses and all the kings men won’t be able to put the empire together again. -anonymous
2:49 pm February 11, 2012
jamie
Golden Apple
posts 1820
34
Post edited 2:52 pm – February 11, 2012 by jamie
Dang Pete you have come a long way in a very short time. For a cheap and quick help get some solar power motion detector spot lights.
I wouldn't worry about paying off the home early right now but I would get out of my 401k or borrow against it and get the truck paid off and start getting metal of all sorts.
Turd Fergeson is expecting a drop in silver price as the Evil Empire try to clear the banks silver position this year.
Great video
feature=mfu_in_order&list=UL
5:11 pm February 11, 2012
MW
Over the Rainbow
Golden Apple
posts 1622
35
I like Part one. I'm interested in hearing his arguments in the rest of the series. Of course, I already bought into the idea that silver will be money in the long term, and a major barter component in the short term. A hedge against inflation and a store of wealth
All the kings horses and all the kings men won’t be able to put the empire together again. -anonymous
10:26 pm February 11, 2012
jamie
Golden Apple
posts 1820
36
Go to his youtube site and watch The greates truth never Told It's a great walk through history and correlating it to the present.
He also has 11 vids posted about silver as a bullet and a shield and explains why he believes it's the thing to have.
2:06 am February 12, 2012
Gallo
Bronze Apple
posts 924
37
Pete said:
If 2012 is the last year, what do you guys think I should be concentrating on as far as last minute preps given the following:
1. I have only ounce of gold and 20 ounces of silver (not counting my wife's jewelry which is legion )
2. I have a .45 Glock 21 pistol, XM-15, 12 gauge Remington 870, .357 Ruger revolver and a Remington Semi-auto .22; and 100's of rounds for each caliber
3. I have enough food stocked for me and my wife for about a year (step daughter and father-in-law will probably
need to be accounted for at some point I'm sure).
4. $2000 in cash stashed
5. 2 cars paid off…I owe on my truck.
6. My garden area is underdeveloped; like I said: hilltop farming is almost impossible…All soil has to be imported
then conditioned.
7. I still owe about 50% of the value of my home but there's enough in my 401K that, if cashed out, would pay off the balance.
There's other odds and ends: I have most toiletries stocked up for a year, books on homesteading and self sufficiency, etc. but out of the 7 items listed, which ones would you all suggest on improving? I think my biggest deficiency is home security: I live in a double wide with no burglar bars, no home security system, etc. Just my father-in-law who's retired and keeps a very good eye on everything while we're away. Well, I have to go for now but would love to hear what you guys think.
I don't think 2012 is the last year for prepping. A few things I'd recommend:
1. Take a look at refinancing your mortgage if your interest rate is high and the remaining years more than 10.
2. Payoff your truck.
3. Increase your cash reserves.
4. Don't touch your 401K. If you are concerned about the market taking a nose dive or you're getting close to retirement age move it to a more conservative mix or park some of it in cash equivalents.
5. For under $150 you can create your own alarm system using Home Depot door and window alarms.
6. As a distant last, open a small business at home to sink expenses into and reduce your taxable income.
6:23 am February 12, 2012
Jarhead
Arkansas
Diamond Apple
posts 2326
38
4. Don't touch your 401K. If you are concerned about the market taking a nose dive or you're getting close to retirement age move it to a more conservative mix or park some of it in cash equivalents.
Why would paying off his home not be a better investment than a 401k?
First home loans aren't as easy to refinance as we are led to believe, hence the low number of refinances nationwide.
Second if you have enough money in your 401k you can borrow it to pay off your mortgage then pay yourself interest instead of the bank, then if (when) things go bad you default on yourself not the bank therefore your home is not in danger of foreclosure.
Don't take my word on it Pete (I'm pretty dumb on this stuff) it's just something you might want to check into.
" When a well packaged web of lies has been sold gradually to the masses over generations, the truth will seem utterly preposterous and it's speaker a raving lunatic." Dresden James
12:11 pm February 12, 2012
jamie
Golden Apple
posts 1820
39
Gallo I just don't think a 401kof any sort is safe from government confiscation. The Feds have already dipped into the Federal pension funds at least once and perhaps more than that to keep the government going. I have become a firm believer now in holding only physical assets.
After the Kelo decision proved that the Government will take your property for any reason they want or the rise of property taxes which is rent you pay to live in a house you own and now all title law is broken after the fraudclosure settlement. I don't think you count on property or a house as anything but a place to live. If you keep your mortgage up to date at least the PTBs can count you as an asset and they might leave you alone because it's in their interest to leave you alone.
2:34 pm February 12, 2012
Gallo
Bronze Apple
posts 924
40
Jarhead said:
Why would paying off his home not be a better investment than a 401k?
Because your home is not going to feed you when you get to be 65. And the lost opportunity of compounding that existing 401K balance another 10 or 15 years is lost when you take out the money. You'll be forced to take on a lot more risk to catch-up. It can be done. I just don't think it's the best idea.
First home loans aren't as easy to refinance as we are led to believe, hence the low number of refinances nationwide.
I just got an estimate to refinance mine from 5.75%, 30 Yr. to 3.5%, 15 Yr. for around $3500. I'm merely adding $100 to my existing payment. The bank or broker will look at 3 things primarily to do the refinance: equity, credit score, and job.
Second if you have enough money in your 401k you can borrow it to pay off your mortgage then pay yourself interest instead of the bank, then if (when) things go bad you default on yourself not the bank therefore your home is not in danger of foreclosure.
I guess if you are about to get foreclosed it may be a good idea, it may also be a good idea to walk away. I don't think this is the case for Pete. Second, the IRA/401K is predicated on time value of money. Twenty thousand invested from the age of 20 to 40 is very different from 20,000 invested from the age of 40 to 60.
————————–
jamie said:
Gallo I just don't think a 401kof any sort is safe from government confiscation. The Feds have already dipped into the Federal pension funds at least once and perhaps more than that to keep the government going. I have become a firm believer now in holding only physical assets.
Every investment carries risk including the IRA and 401K plans. I share part of your fear, and it is why I have limited my contributions to my 401K and diverted the extra money to other more tangible investments. Nonetheless, I would not pull my existing 401K money out. It's a gamble I'm comfortable with. The IRA/401K is the backbone of American markets. No matter how steep a dive the market takes it has a base of institutional investors that will prevent it from turning to rubble. The day the government nationalizes 401K and IRAs that floor is gone and the markets will plummet into the abyss, like you say, with mathematical certainty.
We all have to make our calls based on what we see. Sometimes, however, if all we listen to is the doom and gloom of the prepper community, and the sharks that surround it, it is bound to alter our thinking and lead us into irrational decisions based on fear. Strictly my opinion, no offense to anybody please, the prepper community is not very sophisticated in investments. It takes a brute force approach of storing PMs and food, pray for the best, and prepare for the worst. This is not a bad strategy by any means, but it's far from being optimal, especially when people that have saved 20 years into a 401K come to our community and get scared and end up liquidating it to buy gold and beans. This is hyperbole, of course, but it is the sentiment that I often perceive.
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