Post edited 1:02 pm – January 14, 2012 by Gallo

I'm often surprised how in sync we are regarding our perception of the world. We prepare similarly to survive harder times. However, I don't think we all have the same vision as to what a post SHTF world would look like. We all agree it will be crappy, but I think the spectrum goes from economic collapse with higher crime and lesser jobs to a lights out scenario with roaming biker gangs.

I place most of my empashis on enduring an economic collapse with higher crime and less jobs, but if the US turns into no man's land, I'm getting the he'll out. My preps heavily focus on liquidity and mobility, the ability to leave and land on my two feet else where. As a consequence, I don't have two years of food stored away, instead about 3 months. I keep current passports for all family members and at least two locations outside the US where I can live closer to family. My professional skills set has value in the US and outside, and I can easily get access to at least a shotgun and pistol at my bug out locations.

What is your vision post SHTF and how do you plan to endure it?

I would move closer to family. My biggest hole in preparations is that I find myself 8 hour drive from family. Regarding a world crisis, not too concerned about it. There are always winners and losers in every collapse. But that's just my vision based on my experience. This is what I mean when I say we all know something's coming down, but the outcome is where, at least myself, see it differently.

I see Western Society flowing along a continuous decline…if there were no trigger events to speed things up a bit. With no trigger events, the decline would continue but at faster times (4th Turning) than others. Trigger events open the door for Power Grabs. Power Grabs prevent society and the economy from resetting after a trigger event. Two of the biggest trigger events we've had recently was 9/11 and the 2007 Housing Bust. I think it's time for a catastrophic natural trigger event that will destroy the dollar and the country could possibly break up into regional police states once the Federal Gov't loses control. How to survive? I have a large family here in my local area. I intend on getting somewhat self sufficient in my food production and hope the rest of my family can accomplish the same but none are on board as I am. It's going to be touch and go for the first year after the trigger event. On a side 'prep' I've been studying up on my Spanish and look at the Country of Chile (been following Simon Black's e-letters on that country…sounds exotic!) as maybe an alternate getaway if things get as bad as they seem they might. It's more of a pipe dream than anything, as getting there would have to happen before the trigger event….afterwards, there would be no way to make it. So who knows?

My vision of the future is a slow economic decline in the developed economies that lasts for a couple of decades.  Some people will do OK in this new normal, but most people will experience a lower standard of living from what they have now. The core unemployment rate will remain high.  Social unrest and crime will increase as a result because the Have Nots will become much more envious of the Haves (i.e., "class warfare").

The slow decline means that most people won't notice it much.  Their pay and entitlement checks will continue to buy less and less stuff (e.g., food, gasoline) thanks to governments all around the globe printing money, but people will blame the speculators and other groups for their ills.  The United States might be the "cleanest dirty shirt" in the world laundry right now, but I see all developed economies experiencing harder times.  This is likely to be true after the elections of 2012 are over (the leaders of several countries are up for election this year) and the can can't be kicked as far down the road anymore.

If a war break out, all bets are off.  I see countries potentially fighting over territories and limited resources.  Should a war break out, I don't see it as being limited.  Those countries with weapons of mass destruction will use them when it's to their advantage to do so (i.e., "all is fair in love and war").

It's also possible the developing economies will somehow grow fast enough to be able to bail out the developed economies.  This is the way it used to be since World War II when a growing U.S. economy took the rest of the world along with it.  Only now, the shoe will be on the other foot.  China, India, Brazil, and other developing economies will be in the driver's seat and the developed economies will be the passengers whether they like it or not.

Argentina, Mexico, Latin America as whole.  When their economies go to crap, which happens often, people revert to hard currencies not chickens for bread.

Post edited 2:43 pm – January 16, 2012 by Gallo

Maybe a new currency emerges, maybe one gets created locally by a community.  Who knows, but bartering is a more primitive way of transacting than money.  So I doubt we would take a step in that direction.  Imagine, for example, that a solar flare caused an EMP.  Do you think people would go back to the horse buggy or attempt to rebuild what got fried?  Imagine if all women got shipped to deserted island, would men say, oh lets just do what we can amongst ourselves, or would we get busy trying to build the fastest ship humanity has  ever know?  Same principle.  You don't go back, you simply try to move forward with what you got

Jarhead said:

China, India, Brazil, and other developing economies

I don't know how China can continue it's growth when the country is getting old. Thanks to their one child policy each child will not only have their own family to care for but four grand parents! 

China may not be making enough babies to sustain its population over the long term, but the babies it is making and has made are being encouraged to move from the country to the cities.  This policy is driving China's economic growth.

Where I'm getting this insight from is a presentation on the Caterpillar web site (http://www.caterpillar.com/inv…..sentations).  The 20-page presentation made on December 6, 2011, at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Industries Conference provides the details in the second half of the document (I'd give you the link to the presentation only, but it wants to download the file to your computer — you decide if you want to do this download).

It's possible that Caterpillar is wrong about what's in store for the future, but its message to investors is that the company is a play on global economic development in the developing economies.  Should developing economies grow as rapidly as Caterpillar believes, these economies will need a lot of resources.  Should global resource shortages develop as a result, the prices of necessities are going to increase in the coming years and wars among nations competing for them are much more likely.