Jarhead had asked me about my opinion on the book 'The 4th Turning' by Straus and Howe….I've read only excerpts but was really interested in the topic so I ordered the book. Just started reading it, got through the Introduction section/preface; and the basis theory of the book can be summarized by the following: All of life (and existence in general) follows patterns and cycles…life cycles, yearly cycles, weather patterns, etc. Social cycles within a culture are no exception. The following is an excerpt from the Introduction Chapter:

"In fact, at the core of modern history lies this remarkable pattern: Over the past five centuries, Anglo-American society has entered a new era-a new turning-every two decades or so. At the start of each turning, people change how they feel about themselves, the culture, the nation, and the future. Turnings come in cycles of four. Each cycle spans the length of a long human life, roughly eighty to one hundred years, a unit of time the ancients called the saeculum. Together, the four turnings of the saeculum comprise history's seasonal rhythm of growth, maturation, entropy, and destruction: 1. The First Turning is a 'High', an upbeat era of strengthening institutions and weakening individualism, when a new civic order implants and the old values regime decays. 2. The Second Turning is an 'Awakening', a passionate era of spiritual upheaval, when the civic order comes under attack from a new values regime. 3. The Third Turning is an 'Unraveling', a downcast era of strengthening individualism and weakening institutions, when the old civic order decays and the new values regime implants. 4. The Fourth Turning is a 'Crisis', a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with a new one."

He goes on to list examples of each turning starting with the first turning of the Presidency's of Truman, Eisenhower, and Kennedy after WWII. The 2nd was the 'Consciousness Revolution' starting with the campus revolts of the early 60's to the tax revolts of the early 80's. The 3rd 'is' (book written in 1997) the 'Culture Wars', "an era that began with Reagan's mid-1980's Morning in America and is due to expire around the middle of the Oh-Oh decade, eight or ten years from now. Amid the glitz of the early Reagan years, no one predicted that the nation was entering an era of national drift and institutional decay. But that's where we are."

Moving forward to another quote concerning the 4th turning: "Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse-or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing an dimension. We cannot stop the seasons of history, but we can prepare for them. Right now, in 1997, we have eight, ten, perhaps a dozen more years to get ready. Then events will begin to take choices out of our hands. Yes, winter is coming but our path through that winter is up to us."

I'm hooked!!

Sound like a great read!

Reminds me of natural fires in forest to clean out the dead and olld trees. The result is always a new stronger forest.

Crab Apple said:

More turning?

48% of unemployed off benefits?

http://www.foxnews.com/politic…..-benefits/

mmmhmmm expect a TURNING to crime GET READY NOW. 

That, and coupled with the bankruptcy of local municipalities, cities are starting to layoff law enforcement officials. Here in Ohio, where they were going to be able to avoid the layoffs by revising the Labor Laws for State employees, the new law is going up as a referendum on election day and it appears the law will be reversed which should bankrupt this pathetic state.

Here is a 30-minute audio interview with a co-author of The Fourth Turning.  He discusses the generational divide between the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street (among other things).

Neil Howe on The Fourth Turning: The Coming Age of Conflict

What I found interesting is that at about 20 minutes into the interview, he mentions in passing that Argentina is enjoying "incredible prosperity" now and is back to "full employment."  I've never been to Argentina, so I can't comment on that assertion.  But other reports I've seen about Argentina that were made by people who live there are not so rosy.

He equates this incredible prosperity to the fact that five or six years after a country declares bankruptcy, banks clamor to lend it money again.  This is much like one of my friends who declared bankruptcy a few years ago, and started receiving credit card offers in the mail in a matter of days after his bankruptcy was finalized.  It's true.  He did receive those offers (the sales pitch was "you can have it all").  But when he looked at the terms of those offers, my friend was getting raked over the coals.  The banks made sure they were not going to be losing any money if he ever defaulted again.  Those offers might have been a good way to rebuild credit, but they were not a good way to borrow money.